In November, we did a lot of hiking, playing outside, and meeting up with friends and family. The weather was mild, so perfect Virginia fall temperatures for being outside. Aria has gotten better at being in the hiking backpack for longer hikes now which is nice. She seems to really enjoy looking at the trees, plants, and animals on the trails. We’re fortunate to have several really nice hikes within a 20 mile radius of our new house, so whenever the weather is nice it’s pretty easy to spend a few hours getting exercise and fresh air.
With the new bigger house, we were able to host Thanksgiving at our house this year which was great. It made things a lot easier trying to work around Aria’s morning and afternoon naps, and we didn’t mind cooking a little and then having everyone bring a side. We’re still really enjoying our new place and are happy that we finally upgraded.
Income
Income from our business (FifthWheelPT and Travel Therapy Mentor) for November was about 40% lower than in October. We got busy at the end of the month, so we got behind on invoicing which led to less money coming in during the month. Companies were also behind due to Thanksgiving, so some payments didn’t get sent out on time. This isn’t a big deal though since we’ll just have a bigger month in December when those payments come in.
Expenses
My expenses for November were about on par with what I anticipate a normal month being going forward. I spent a little more than normal due to Christmas gift shopping at the end of the month, but it was nice getting as much shopping done as possible early instead of waiting til the last minute.
In total, my savings rate for the month was around 60% when all was said and done.
Investments
The S&P 500 was basically flat for the month down about 0.1%. There was a few percent dip early on but a strong end to the month erased most of that drop. It has been interesting to see so much bearishness in the market while stock prices just keep going higher. I think this is a result of the disconnect between asset price and wages. Those with assets feel like things are going great, while those without assets are falling behind rapidly with rising prices. Even though the market keeps going higher, everyone can sense that there are some major issues under the surface that will emerge at some point, which is causing the fear. So far though, unemployment remains fairly stable and the inflation rate is trending down, which are good signs. They say that bull markets “climb a wall of worry” and that certainly seems to be the case for this bull market since 2020. There were endless reasons why the market should go down, yet the S&P 500 is up about 200% from the bottom in March 2020. Markets can always stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, so timing things is very difficult. Almost everyone agrees that we’re in an AI capex fueled bubble, there’s just no way to know if we’re at the top or several more years away.
Bitcoin was down by about 17.5% in November. I have to admit that this was very unexpected for me. I thought we had a pretty firm floor at $100k but that was apparently very wrong. I was expecting $150k+ in Q4 but that seems very unlikely now. Although I was wrong, I’m not that upset about it. Short term it hurts, but long term I think this drop and no major euphoria is a good thing. Bitcoin usually has crazy euphoric peaks often doubling in a couple months followed by massive crashes that wipe out the leverage and speculators. This time there was no euphoria so the leverage, speculation, and misallocation of capital isn’t extreme. To me this means that the drop, assuming this is a bear market, is probably going to be mild compared to the past. I doubt the price drops more than 50% from the peak, with a good possibility it’s 40% or less. In the crypto world, that’s not bad at all. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 5-6 months with prices down 30%-40% before starting to trend higher again in the spring/summer of next year and new all time highs in 2026. This would catch most market participants off guard again since most people are now expecting a 70% drop lasting a full year. I’m happy to accumulate at prices below $100k and remain very optimistic about the long term future for Bitcoin.
Financial Independence Progress
My net assets decreased by 9.3% in October. The drop in Bitcoin was a big drag on my portfolio. Even with this significant drop over the last couple of months, I’m still only back to net worth levels equal to March and April of this year though which isn’t bad.
My assets are now equal to approximately 34.3 times my average annual expenses!
In case you missed it, check out my August monthly post for an update on why I adjusted my spending assumptions.
Next Month
In December, we’re pretty busy between holidays, family events, friends visiting from out of town, and end of the year things for the business. We also are planning to buy new cars before the end of the year. I never thought we’d buy new cars, but ours are both about 10 years old now and we have plenty of cash to pay for new ones, so we might as well. More on that next month!
How was November for you financially? Let me know in the comments!
Fifth Wheel Physical Therapist 