In February we took our first real trip with Aria. We drove to Charlotte and then flew to Houston for the APTA CSM conference. Both Whitney and I, but especially Whitney, were nervous about how this trip would go for a couple of months. Aria’s sleep had been very inconsistent with more bad nights than good leading up to the trip, and we didn’t know how she would do on a plane.
As with all of our trips since 2020, there were more issues than we expected with flying. First, there was a snowstorm that hit the east coast the day we were scheduled to fly out of Washington DC. We had to change our flight to leave out of Charlotte and go a day earlier than we planned very last minute to avoid that. Not the end of the world, but some additional cost. We spent the night in Charlotte the night before the flight so that we’d have plenty of time. As it turns out, that didn’t matter at all because our flight was delayed by 4 hours. Normally that wouldn’t be a big deal but we were already at the airport and we had done our best to plan Aria’s eating and sleeping schedule around the flight, so that all got thrown out the window. She did really well on the flight overall, but we didn’t get to Houston until after 11 PM, so Aria was understandably tired and fussy by that point. To our surprise, she slept better in Houston than she had been at home, including one night where she slept a full 9 hours straight for the first time ever. On the way back home, our flight was delayed for over an hour after we’d boarded the plane, which again wasn’t ideal. We made it through it though, and we were happy with how she adapted to everything that happened. This trip gave us the confidence to get out and about with her more since she did so well. The conference was really good, and we had another successful meetup with lots of current and future travel PTs hanging out and talking with us.
Besides the conference, February was quiet and cold. Having a young baby during a cold and dark winter was more challenging than we anticipated. We’re used to going out and doing things but with outdoor activities off the table and Aria on a pretty strict schedule and not sleeping well at night, we ended up spending more time in the house than we wanted to. Good thing spring is right around the corner!
Income
Income from our business (FifthWheelPT and Travel Therapy Mentor) for February was about 50% lower than January. February is usually not our best month for income since it’s a short month. Even though we made a lot less than in January, it was still our second best February ever behind only February 2023 in terms of revenue. We’re on track for another good year with our business and could potentially set another new record for total revenue if the rest of the year goes how it’s projected.
Expenses
My expenses for February were slightly higher than normal with the trip to Houston. We were able to book the flights and hotel with points, so no out of pocket costs, there but way more eating out and Ubers than we’d have in a normal month at home.
In total, my savings rate for the month was around 80% when all was said and done.
Investments
The S&P 500 was down by about 1.4% in February. Volatility is increasing with fiscal and monetary policy change uncertainty. The US is in a tough situation right now. Trillions of dollars of debt needs to be refinanced this year at higher rates while we’re still running a $2 trillion dollar yearly deficit. Government spending has been propping up the economy since 2020, but that’s obviously unsustainable. The problem is that attempts to cut the debt and deficit risk recession and a surge in unemployment, which will exacerbate the problem due to reduced tax receipts. I’m continually baffled at how long the can is able to be kicked without a reckoning. I thought it would happen back in 2022-2023 but here we are with markets way higher than they were back then despite the worsening fiscal position of countries around the world. It seems to me that the markets are calling the bluff of the Fed and the politicians, continuing higher in anticipation of endless continued deficits, debt, and monetary debasement. While the debasement is great for asset prices, it’s crushing the middle and lower class through inflation and higher interest rates. This makes me think that it’s unsustainable without sparking a revolution and will have to reverse at some point. Again, whether that’s this year, next year, or in 10 years, I have no idea anymore. Maybe in 2050 we’re still kicking the can and wealth inequality just keeps getting worse.
Bitcoin was down by about 17.6% in February. While this was certainly a little painful and hurt my net worth, it actually wasn’t that bad because I feel that the drop is disconnected from fundamentals. I’m viewing this correction as a major opportunity to buy. Bitcoin benefits the most from monetary debasement but has the added benefit of growing adoption and network effects. The change in policy around Bitcoin with the new administration couldn’t be more positive, but I don’t think the market has fully understood all of the implications. In my mind, the left tail risk has all but been removed at this point, which means my probability based expected value calculation is much higher. I think the $80k range in early 2025 will be looked back at as the best risk/reward opportunity for Bitcoin ever, yet sentiment is at “extreme fear” right now. More downside is always possible, but the potential downside from here is massively outweighed by the potential upside. I could always be wrong of course, but I increased my Bitcoin exposure by quite a bit in February on this dip. All of the indicators I look at are saying that we’re nowhere near overvalued at these prices, so I’m happy to buy in anticipation of much higher prices over the next year. When things do start to get overheated again, I’ll be selling into that euphoria like in 2021.
Financial Independence Progress
My net assets decreased by 6.6% in February. This, of course, was mostly due to the drop in the Bitcoin price. A 6.6% drop is the biggest monthly decline I’ve had since June 2022 in the depths of the Bitcoin bear market. Although a pretty big monthly drop in dollar terms, this really only puts me back to where I was a few months ago, so not really much of a concern. When putting a significant portion of my investments in a volatile asset like Bitcoin, these types of drops are expected.
My assets are now equal to approximately 120.4 times my average annual expenses!
Next Month
In March we don’t have any trips planned, so we will be at home for the whole month trying to work on finding a routine that works for us as a family, and hopefully improves Aria’s sleep at night. It’s certainly gotten better the past few months, but hopefully we can get to consistent longer stretches of sleep at night soon!
How was February for you financially? Let me know in the comments!
Fifth Wheel Physical Therapist 